A gain is always a range, never a single promised number. It combines three inputs:
- Observed response: how this property's clicks changed after similar position or click-through moves in the past.
- Curve model: the gain implied by a click-through curve for the property, or a global curve where the property has too little data.
- Conservative floor: the lowest value the range may take, so a thin history cannot produce an optimistic lower bound.
The Opportunity Ladder recomputes the curve-model part in your browser when you move the target position, and labels the result as recomputed from the curve model only.
The tier attached to a range comes from its backtest, described under confidence tiers.